How Building Energy Use Reacted to Variable Occupancy Pre- and Post- COVID-19 Pandemic—Sensitivity Analysis of 35 Commercial Buildings in Canada

The COVID-19 pandemic and global shutdown and work-from-home order for non-essential businesses and employees led to a substantial decline in energy usage in the commercial building sector. However, the magnitude of decline was not equivalent to what would be expected for unoccupied spaces. The energy performance of low/unoccupied commercial buildings, particularly in the context of new minimum requirements to maintain indoor air quality, is an intriguing research question. In this study, we developed a numerical model that measures electricity usage sensitivity to occupancy (ESTO) where we compare the business-as-usual energy performance with unoccupied energy performance. Two years of COVID-time (in addition to a pre-COVID control year) hourly energy use (electricity (plug loads, lighting, and fans), heating, and cooling) using data from 35 commercial buildings (i.e., buildings with HVAC and other building systems typical of commercial rather than residential buildings) are analyzed to quantify those changes. A change point model is used to assess thermal load intensities, change point temperature, and off-season unoccupied baseloads. Finally, we suggest a generic framework for building scoring based on selected performance parameters. Results indicate that the suggested scoring system is robust and replicable and is reliable for ranking buildings within a given portfolio from best- to worst- performing, thus prioritizing buildings that are best candidates for retrofits.

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